Velj 142013
 
Populacijska piramida_thumb

Ovih dana malo sam proučavao populacijsku piramidu i pregledavao podatke Državnog zavoda za statistiku o rezultatima posljednjeg popisa stanovništva od 2011. Između ostalog tamo se nalaze i podaci o spolnoj i dobnoj strukturi od popisa 1953.-2011. prikazani populacijskim piramidama. Populacijsku piramidu smatram vizualizacijom koja na dobar način prikazuje podatke. ono što mi međutim kod nje nedostaje je bolja mogućnost da podatke stavimo u povijesni kontekst, odnosno da uspoređujemo promjene koje su nastale u spolnoj i dobnoj strukturi stanovništva.

Za ilustraciju ovoga sam i sam kreirao dvije piramide u stvari dva složena trakasta grafikona u Excelu koji oponašaju populacijske piramide, s obzirom da Excel ne nudi populacijsku piramidu ili tornado chart kao jedan od ponuđenih tipova grafikona.

PopilacijskePiramide1

Odlučio sam se da na apscisi prikažem broj stanovnika u tisućama umjesto postotaka kao što je to uobičajeno, kako bi se moglo komparirati kolika je stvarna promjena broja stanovnika u pojedinoj dobnoj skupini. One dobro pokazuju raspodjelu stanovništva po dobi i spolu. Međutim ono što meni kod njih nedostaje je to da daju brzu i jasnu informaciju o trendovima. Relativno lako je uočiti da je baza te piramide nešto uža za rezultate popisa iz 2011, što govori da je hrvatsko stanovništvo postalo starije, međutim, teško je ovako uspoređujući dvije piramide jednu kraj druge reći koje su se promjene dogodile u kojoj dobnoj skupini.

Razmišljao sam malo o tome kako unaprijediti taj prikaz da se iz njega mogu iščitati trendovi, pa sam napravio slijedeći grafikon koji pokazuje koliko je u kojoj dobnoj skupini povećanje/smanjenje u 2011 u odnosu na 2001.

PopulacijskaPiramida2

Ovaj grafikon sam kreirao koristeći trakasti grafikon. da bi dobio “praznu” traku u unutrašnjosti piramide izračunao sam minimalne vrijednosti za svaku dobnu grupu koristeći podatke od oba popisa i postavio boju trake bijelu. Ona prekriva zelene i crvene trake koji prikazuju smanjenje i povećanje u 2011 godini. Ovo vjerojatno nije najelegantniji pristup, ali je najbolje do čega sam uspio doći.

Ono što se iz ovog grafikona dobro vidi je to da hrvatsko stanovništvo zaista postaje starije, s obzirom da u svim starosnim skupinama od 0 do 49 godina imamo pad, osim vrlo malog povećanja kod muškaraca u dobi 30-34 godine, međutim to je neznatno i ne narušava trend.

S druge strane sve dobne skupine preko 50 godina pokazuju rast izuzev one od 65-69 godina, međutim, to uleknuće je posljedica ratnog perioda 1941-1945.

Ono s čime kod ovoga prikaza međutim nisam zadovoljan je to što ne vidimo same piramide i nije baš jednostavno predočiti si to kako one izgledaju. Piramidu koja prikazuje rezultati popisa iz 2001 predstavljaju završetci crvenih i počeci zelenih traka promatrano od nulte točke, dok onu iz 2011 predstavljaju počeci crvenih i završeci zelenih, a takva perceptivna organizaciju nije jednostavna složiti i zbog toga sam odlučio potražiti bolje rješenje.

Umjesto trakastog grafikona kreirao sam scatter plot i trake zamijenio krivuljama. kako to izgleda prikazuje donji grafikon.

PopulacijskaPiramida3

Na ovaj način imamo grafikon koji pokazuje kako same piramide (možda je bolje reći krivulje) za popise iz 2001. i 2011., tako i razlike među njima koje je lako uočiti i identificirati.

Uz ovo, sviđa mi se i što pokazuje kako se uleknuće generacije 1941-’45 pomaklo za 10 godina i dok se u popisu iz 2001. radilo o 55-godišnjacima i godišnjakinjama, sada su to 65-godišnjaci i godišnjakinje.

Vidimo i to kada smo imali male baby-boomove, kao i periode kada je natalitet bio mali.

Vrh piramide pokazuje širenje kod oba spola i idemo ka tome da postanemo staro društvo, ili to već jesmo.

Jako dobra demonstracija i opis kako kreirati ovakav grafikon u Excelu može se pronaći na izvrsnom blogu Jorgea Camoesa Excel Charts.

Konačno, inspiriran ovim člankom J. Camoesa, odlučio sam kreirati prikaz koji ne prikazuje piramidu, nego samo krivulje, posebno za ženski, posebno za muški dio populacije, te ukupnu sliku koji kombinira tri ovakva scatter plot grafikona u jedan takozvani panel chart.

populacijskePiramide4

Zaključno, za prikaz i usporedbu kretanja spolne i dobne strukture u populaciji, ja bih odabrao jedan od ova dva posljednja scatter plot grafikona. koji od njih, teško ni je reći. Prvi je možda tradicionalniji i lakše je usporediti žene i muškarce, dok ovaj posljednji daje i usporedbu ukupne populacije i estetski mi bolje izgleda. Kakva su vaša razmišljanja?

Za oni koji žele igrati se s ovim grafikonima, Excel datoteka s njima i podacima nalazi se u prilogu.

Populacijska piramida usporedbe_v1.xlsx (471)

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